In my observation of governments that go down the fascism path, there are four phases and I want talk about them so you can understand how things will go down, and what and when the risks are.
Phase 0
Regular Governments have Rule of Law and tend to stabilize after 30-40 years. Even states that arent really free, but somewhat stable (like Thailand) fall into this category. There are rules, even if unspoken ones and a legitimate non governmental society.
Phase 1 - The One Party State
Most illiberal democracies fall into this path and there is still quite a bit of variety between them. China, pre Xi as well as Turkey and Hungary both fall here. Turkey and Hungary still have rules, though Turkey has much stronger traditions than Hungary, and Turkey even survived a coup. The biggest indicator of whether a state is Phase 0 vs Phase 1 is typically restrictions on the Press. Modi has made India somewhere between Phase 1 and Phase 0, whereas Orban and Edrogan have made their media behave like well trained dogs. The biggest difference between Phase 1 and Phase 2 is the courts or centers of power away from the leader or factions within the party. Basically, can ANYONE, even from the party itself tell the Leader no, and in Turkey and Hungary the answer is still yes even if it must be done in back channels.
Phase 2 - The Dictatorship
The difference between a Phase 2 and Phase 3 fascist state is a subtle one, but usually it happens with weaker or saner dictators, and the dictator tends to run things in a coherent or stable fashion. He spends most of his time actually making things work or governing, rather than making things about him or stealing occurs but it is tastefully kept in the shadows. China is here; the party revolves around Xi but Xi has not yet gone full Mao. Russia, prior to the Ukraine war, was here. No one dared challenge Putin but he still wanted to keep things on the down low, which is why he was pissed when Navalny exposed his theft of public funds. The main difference between Phase 2 and Phase 3 is how much push back the leader does for absconding funds for gold plated statues of themselves.
Phase 3 - Full Fascist State
The Leader begins to make the State about them. China under Mao reached this stage, with the little red book becoming the dominant and required reading material. Putin has now basically turned Russia into this out of paranoia and necessity. Dictators who are still sane tend to fall into this category, and ultimately this is where most of them want to be. Only Benevolent Dictators keep things in Phase 1 or Phase 2; and there are a few in history. Strong Kings also tended to keep things in Phase 1 or Phase 2. One of the primary reasons for this is, Civil War is more likely the farther down this track they fall, and if the leader makes things too much about them, then collapse tends to occure. North Korea is technically a 3, but has found a somewhat strange stability at 2.9 allowing the heir to exist in their shadow until ready to take over without being directly threatened by the heir.
Phase 4 - Full Turkmenistan
If you haven't heard about Turkmenistan, you can watch this video. I refer to this as the full Batshit phase. North Korea basically lives here, but manages to customize things in other ways. Countries that do this typically become the laughing stock of the world. Final Nazi Germany, the Khmer Rouge, Turkmenistan, Stalin's Russia, Nicolai Chauchesku etc all live here. Days of the week are renamed, executions happen by anti aircraft gun. Small docs are made illegal just because the leader can. The color white or the color red can be banned on principal. 1984, the Red Queen from Alice in Wonderland, ful on fucking madness.
So how fast will America be destroyed? This is subjective opinion but here is my progostication.
America is Phase 0 until Jan 20th. Technically, we crossed into Phase 1 when the Rape Court allowed Virginia to illegally purge 1600 voters the night before the electoin, but singular anomolies don't make a full transition. The real transition will be when opposition media are silenced. This will likely happen within the first year, potentially the first month if Trump goes full Desanti which he has publicly threaened to do. Florida is DEFINITELY a Phase 1 territory but a Phase 0 overlord government like the EU for Orban or the federal government for Desanti can slow this down. There is no Phase 0 overlord government for the United States of Nazi America.
Phase 2 can happen any time Trump wants. Because Trump owns the Republican Party now, which basically means, the instant Trump WANTS to move to Phase 2, he can. No one in the Republican Party who didnt endorse Harris will be the slightest obstacle to the Orange Shitler, including the Rape Court, the House or the Senate. He also has full immunity for anything he does. It is inevitable that this stage will happen but it happens by default the instant he either outlaws the democrats or messes with an election or simply arrests political prisoners with no explantion of why simply beyond the fact that he can.
Phase 3 will initially happen as cultural tribute; we already see nazis doing this. When federal funds are openly directed towards statues of trump then we are approaching this. The Oklahoma Trump Bible is another example of this and when it goes federal then we know we're in Phase 3. Anything with Trump's face on it, or when we start seeing wholseale billions being directed towards Trump or even Musk or Thiel or Bezos, then we know we are here. Indeed, given that the electoral coup was orchestrated by billionares, we might skip Phase 1 and 2 and go straight to Phase 3.
What most Trump voters want is Phase 1 and laugh at the idea that we will get to Phase 2 or beyond. They naively believe that the constitution and American democratic tradition are so strong, that we can't possibly become a dictaroship because the constitution says it can't. They naively assume that because the American Republic is so old and formerly strong that it can't hapepn here. The only fringe benefit besides what I wrote about yesterday in enjoying the pain of Nazis is that the Entitlement from Birth that most Americans have is going to have a nice pin prick intheir balloon. Eurpeans are naturally skeptical of propganda and jingoism because of the two world wars and they and their parents and their grandparents grew up seeing the physical reminders of ruination that came from it. Disgusting and naive and indifferent Americans are going to get a taste of it; because even those who escape the whims and caprice of the Leader wont escape the inevitable civil war that will come when the Republic and Constitution are destroyed and there is no authority in government but force of will of the anemic and valueless Republican Party and the state of Trump for Trump by Trump.
