Monday, November 4, 2024

Impending Death Splurge - Risk Management

Let me give you a thumb nail on Risk Management. It's the science of reducing risk as a strategic science. The most common tool is a ROAM chart which lets you Reduce, Own, Accept or Mitigate the risk. The first trick to do this is to divide risks into categories of impact and probability. For example, a low risk low impact risk to voting is that you have slightly higher taxes. Odds are, neither party is goingt to raise taxes that much, and the impact for most people wont really be that high. Whereas, a High Impact, Low Risk possibility would be if Harris suddenly gets mind controlled by Nazis and implement the Woke Virus turning us all into the Commie Mutant Pig Dog Traitor Bathroom Confused Zombies that they accuse everyone left of Hitler of being.

That's not what matters though.

By definition, the risk one should plan for first and most are high probability, high impact risk. The other risks dont matter comparatively. There is 100 percent certainty that Trump has surrounded himself with yes men, racists and fascists who can and will lie to do whatever it takes to maintain and seize power. We've seen that with their court challenges. This isnt speculation on my part, its fact. Why then, would we assume that those willing to break the law and lie like they breathe and support armed insurrection wouldnt plan to prevent or cheat in future elections? I mean, it would be kind of dumb not to, wouldn't it?

There are some levels of risk that you just have to accept. Alien invading? VERY VERY low risk, very very high impact. You just accept that risk and move on with your day. What can you do?

But when you CAN mitigate a risk? That's insane not to do everything in your power to address. And voting is so simple. You show up, you check a box. Men have fought and died for your ability to do that, and you can repay them by not voting for nazis.

But there is another layer. When conducting Risk Analysis, one should include all the factors. Specifically, I refer to people who feel it is a risk to vote for Democrats because they dont want to reward their support of AIPAC and Israeli war crimes. I've spoken about this before. Not so much on my blogs or this blog in particular due to the AIPAC habit of deplatforming me and others who dont like what they do. But despite Russian ties to fruitloops like Jill Stein and RFK JR, I do understand the desire to avoid rewarding evil behavior. But the problem with this, is that the risk reward benefit for this behavior makes no sense.

From a Risk Management standpoint, rewarding bad behavior is a High Impact, High Probability risk. People who have a problem with Israel know with one hundred percent certainty that the democratic party can and will do whatever it is that AIPAC wants with a few notable exceptions. They also know that the Republicans will do the same thing but worse. The logic basically is make the democrats pay now, regret their behavior and court the far left for votes in a future election. The problem with this is that the other High Impact, High Probability risk of NEVER HAVING AN ELECTION AGAIN, nullfies any potential benefit for this strategum.

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